What happened
The Points Guy says travelers should book 2026 holiday flights now, with June average ticket prices 27% above last year after the Iran conflict lifted oil and jet-fuel costs.
Points Path data as of early August 2026 showed domestic Thanksgiving round-trips already nearly 13% costlier than in 2025. Domestic fares between Dec. 18 and Jan. 3 were about 18% higher year over year. International holiday trips were about 19% higher. Last year Thanksgiving prices rose each month from July and jumped most in mid-September, so The Points Guy says to buy as soon as possible and no later than Labor Day weekend. Airline executives say customers are still paying the higher prices, so carriers have little reason to cut fares even if fuel eases.
Dynamically priced award tickets tend to get more expensive when cash fares rise. Most U.S. loyalty programs refund miles on a canceled award, while a cheaper cash fare after booking generally becomes flight credit rather than a refund. Basic economy typically cannot be changed. Book 2026 Thanksgiving flights now and no later than Labor Day weekend rather than waiting for Christmas or New Year's fares to fall.
- Numbers
- 27%: June average ticket prices versus last year
- 13%: Thanksgiving domestic round-trip fares versus 2025
- 18%: year-end holiday domestic fares versus last year
- 19%: international holiday fares versus a year ago
- Takeaway
- Book 2026 Thanksgiving flights now and no later than Labor Day weekend, and do not wait on Christmas or New Year's tickets hoping prices will fall.